Economic perspective on the impact of a growing population

Let us bring in a certain degree of economic perspective on the impact of a growing population on a state like kerala however small the growth is going to be.

1. Don't forget the we are almost a complete consumer economy in every aspect. We hardly produce but for unlimited verbiage and hypocrisy Most of the consumables what we use are brought from outside.

2. An that include grains , vegetables ,various daily consumables,cosmetics, cloths , foot wear and what nots

3. And most importantly that includes Oil and Gas(petroleum products) as well.

4.Not only that we consume oil and gas directly for transportation and cooking , oil plays a big role determining the price levels of various other imports (transportation cost)

5. Currently India is fast becoming the largest importer of Oil( Now fifth).

6. With the gradual increase in the living standards and aspirations of the existing populations alone, the need and subsequent import of oil will shoot up in India in near future.

7. In the next leg of the global growth the Oil prices are going to shoot through the roof hitting countries like us harder.

8. Our oil import bill alone will be eating up a good chunk of our GDP.

9. An increase in the Oil prices will spiral up the inflation and will be hitting consumer economy like Kerala right on its weak spot.

10.The use of oil and other consumables is always proportional to the population and living standards.

11. ie, if both are going up together then the oil will become a deciding factor for kerala economy's stability.

12. The state government of the time will have no option but to heavily subsidize oil and other basic goods and there by crippling the budgetary allocation for other governmental and social welfare activities.

13. Such a scenario will reverse the economic progress and will increase the number of people below poverty line.

14. While this is almost a cent percent probable scenario which will unfold itself in the next 15 years , the additional burden of a depreciating rupee will crate havoc in the economy.

15 Only a well regulated resource utilization strategy can tide over such turbulent times and for planning it out , the first thing to bring under control is the population

16. A 'TFR' of 2 ensures that every child born gets as much right to the common wealth of the society as his father did , a TFR greater than 2 makes him poorer in inherited wealth, forcing the society to resort to increased wealth creation options.

17. However, a consumerist society like ours would find it hard to switch gears and instead will end up poorly equipped to deal with such a situation. The chances are that it will trigger a sharp increase in the dis-satisfied and less paid population living in the middle of increased un-employments and resource scarcity.

18. It would have been a different matter had we been a exporter economy and rich in land .But unfortunately we are not.!!

19. It may not be an issue for the rich , but we are still the country of the poor.And every one count added to the population makes the life of an existing poor as much miserable
20. Lets consider a few facts we have in front of us:

It says compared to year 2001 , 2011 have 13 laks + children in kerala. ( it should be be 15 lakhs + as one has to add the death count as well to the increased population to get the number of kids below age 10 )

That means compared to 2001 , in 2011 the state of Kerala needs to raise and educate 15 lacs children and address their various needs .

Just considering education expense alone , a quality education for a child is now priced at 30,000 (tuition fee alone) per year in the free market economy.
(Either the parents or the government will have to bear this expense)

Let us round it to 10000 for ease of calculation:

So this annual education cost for the newly born children additionally born by the society is 15 lacs x 10000 = 1500 crores.

This means every year Kerala of year 2011 has to keep aside 1300 crores compared to the year 2001.

Mind you, this is just for educational expenses . One may add the other expenses like other educational expenses instruments , educational accessories etc , medical , clothing , toys books etc etc .. (Most of these are produced outside kerala - being a consumer state)

If kerala society had TFR of exactly 2 during the period 2001 to 2011 , every year N x1500 crore rupees could have been saved and a part of it could have been redirected towards welfare of the society or reinvestment into the system( by adopting proper taxation policies).

On the contrary , the demand for goods and services for the fulfillment of the needs of 13 lacs children increase the overall demand in the system thereby inflating the prices and creating various scarcities. The existing poor will be even more marginalized under the inflationary spiral triggered by the increased demand in the society.

The bottom line is that an ever growing populations is never good for the poor and the under privileged as their chances of upliftment is significantly derailed by the continuous and ever increasing demand thereby created in the system..!!

And a constantly blotting poor class in a society never ever will make it a developed society and economy.!!

And more importantly a constantly blotting population never give a chance for the upward mobility and stabilization of the poorer sections as the focus keeps continuously remain fixed onto the new dynamics leaving behind the old rotten as it is.

-Vasu